Forcing a bitcoin (BTC) price breakout is looking anything but easy for the bulls, with the path to $7,400 being littered with resistance levels.

Stepping back, the leading cryptocurrency jumped above $6,800 on Monday, neutralizing the bearish view put forward by a downside break of a trendline support last Friday.

The sharp recovery from lows below $6,200 also adds credence to the argument that BTC has likely charted a long-term bottom around the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). Moreover, the repeated defense of the area around $6,000 indicates sellers exhaustion. Hence, the stage looks set for a strong move to the upside.

However, securing a bearish-to-bullish trend change above $7,402 (Sept. 4 high) is going to be a tough task as BTC could encounter stiff resistance at following technical levels:

Trendline falling from July highs

BTC clocked a high of $6,810 on Monday, but closed (as per UTC) at $6,440, keeping intact the resistance of the trendline drawn between the July 25 and Sept. 5 highs.

At press time, the cryptocurrency is trading around the trendline resistance of $6,430 on Coinbase. A high-volume close above that level would open the doors to the next resistance level lined up above $6,800.

Horizontal line from Sept. 22 high of $6,823

BTC’s failure to hold above $6,823 on Monday has established that level as a key near-term resistance. In any case, it is a key horizontal hurdle, as seen in the chart above.

It is worth noting that horizontal resistance or support levels (major high or low) carry more importance in technical analysis than trendlines, whose connecting points may differ from person to person.

Trendline from March highs

The trendline connecting March highs and July highs is currently located at $7,020 and could cap upside.

The longer the duration of the trendline, the more validity is attached to the support or resistance level it represents.

Hence, the prospects of a bull breakout above $7,400 would rise sharply if BTC manages to clear this eight-month-long falling trendline on the back of strong volumes.

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  • BTC seems to have carved out a bottom around the 21-day EMA, although a bullish breakout is $1,000 away.
  • A break above the trendline sloping downwards from March highs could be considered an early sign of impending bullish reversal above $7,402 (Sept. 4 high).
  • On the downside, the 21-month EMA of $6,123 is the level to beat for the bears.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

 

This post credited to coindesk Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View 

Bitcoin (BTC) seems to have built a base around a key moving average in the last four months, although, so far, it has not been able to produce a definitive bullish breakout.

Throughout 2018, the leading cryptocurrency has set lower price highs, indicating the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Despite the bearish setup, the 21-month exponential moving average(EMA) has served as a strong floor since June. More importantly, the failure to beat the EMA support for four straight months indicates that the sell-off from the record high of $20,000 reached in December has likely run its course.

So, it seems safe to say that the stage has been set for the cryptocurrency to jump above the recent lower price high of $7,429 hit a month ago and confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Even so, the bulls have been reluctant to push prices north of $6,800 in the last two weeks. Still, since BTC tends to perform well in the last three months of the calendar year, that may be about to change.

At press time,  BTC is trading largely unchanged on the day at $6,585 on Bitfinex.

Monthly chart

As seen on the monthly chart, BTC produced a minor rally to $8,500 in July, after finding support at the 21-month EMA in June.

Further, the sellers failed to penetrate the EMA support in August and September, establishing it as a key level to watch out for in the near-term.

Daily chart

Over on the daily chart, the 5-day and 10-day EMAs are flatlined, indicating that the bitcoin market is currently lacking a clear directional bias.

The outlook as per the daily chart would turn bullish if and when the cryptocurrency finds acceptance above the trendline connecting the July 25 high and Sept. 5 high. As of writing, the trendline resistance is located at $6,802.

The bear failure, as seen in the monthly chart, does indicate scope for a break above the trendline hurdle in the near-term.

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  • BTC seems to have bottomed out around the 21-month EMA, currently located at $6,150.
  • A UTC close above the falling trendline seen in the daily chart would open up upside toward $7,429 (September high). A high volume move above that level would add credence to BTC’s repeated defense of the 21-month EMA and confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.
  • On the downside, a convincing move below the 21-month EMA will likely embolden the bears.

This post credited to coindesk  Image source: Getty Images

New research has found that, despite the popular idea that cryptocurrencies operate generally outside the reach of national regulators, regulatory actions still have a huge impact on crypto markets. The research is presented in a report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an organisation owned by 60 of the world’s central banks from countries cumulatively making up 95 percent of global GDP.

In the report, the data presented shows that while markets do not generally respond to news about central banks creating their own digital currencies or issuing general non-specific warnings about cryptocurrencies, they show a significant response to regulatory announcements regarding the legal status of cryptocurrencies and initial coin offering (ICO) tokens, as well as possible expansion and enforcement of AML, KYC, and CFT regulations.

According to the report, four major findings were established about the response of crypto markets to regulatory actions and announcements.

First of all, crypto markets were found to respond most significantly to news reports and events concerning bans, restrictions, or legal battles on cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Where the news in question directly concerns regulatory decisions or actions regarding the legal status of crypto assets, markets respond very strongly.

This also includes issues surrounding securities regulation, such as the ongoing ambiguity regarding the United States SEC’s pending decision on whether to permit a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). This does not only work negatively, as according to the report, markets also react positively to news about possible new legal frameworks designed to accommodate cryptocurrencies and ICOs.

bitcoin price
BTC/USD | Bitfinex

Second, regulatory news about AML/CFT measures and restrictions on crypto’s ability to integrate with traditional financial systems due to regulatory action or non-action was also found to have a noticeable effect on crypto markets. For example, news that a crypto exchange is denied access to banking services within a regulated financial system has a noticeably negative effect on the local market. Conversely, news about regulatory green lights for crypto startups to engage with regulated financial organisations, such as a successful New York BitLicense application, has a markedly positive effect on markets.

Third, non-specific general warnings about the dangers of cryptocurrency investment and trading have a negligible effect on the market. The same also holds true of announcements by financial regulators and central banks announcing their own plans to issue central bank digital currency (CBDC). Markets generally ignore such pronouncements for good or for bad, which was seen earlier this year when the EU slapped down Estonia’s bid to issue a national cryptocurrency. The news had no noticeable negative effect on crypto markets, as did news of Venezuela’s plan to launch a state sanctioned cryptocurrency backed by its crude oil reserves.

The report’s final finding is that, despite crypto’s trans-border accessibility and functionality, significant price differences are still noticeable across jurisdictions, indicating that there is a significant level of market segmentation.

Explaining this phenomenon, an excerpt form the report reads:

“These results suggest that cryptocurrency markets rely on regulated financial institutions to operate and that these markets are segmented across jurisdictions, bringing cryptocurrencies within reach of national regulation. […] Because they rely on regulated financial institutions to operate and markets are (still) segmented across jurisdictions, cryptocurrencies are within the reach of national regulation.”

The full BIS report can be downloaded here.

 

This post credited to ccn  Image from Shutterstock. Charts from TradingView.

Bitcoin Moves Back Above $6,300, Ethereum at $210 — Sea Of Green

After a short period of weakness on Monday, which saw the leading cryptocurrencies capitulate by upwards of 10% in some cases (Bitcoin -3%, Ethereum -10%, etc.), optimistic speculators had a chance to breath a sigh of relief on Tuesday, as the market underwent a healthy bounce off the aforementioned price drop. As seen in the following image, courtesy of CoinMarketCap, all the crypto assets in the top 10, save for Tether, are posting substantial gains and crazy bullish runs in the case of a few cryptocurrencies.

Image Courtesy of CoinMarketCap

Most notably, Ripple’s native digital asset XRP, which as covered by Ethereum World News earlier today, had its time in the limelight today, posting double-digit percentage gains as it ran to $0.32 a piece to the chagrin of short sellers. Other leaders in today’s market include Cardano (ADA) at an 8% gain, Ethereum at 6%, Stellar Lumens at 5.5%, along with MKR, Ardor, Golem, and Steem which all rose by over 10% in the past 24 hours.

But again, Ethereum caught the attention of many traders in this bout of volatility, as BitMEX’s recently-released 100x perpetual swap for ETH has proven to have been a lucrative, yet risky vehicle for many looking to turn a quick buck. As recently stated in a podcast hosted by Crypto Bobby and the Crypto Street Podcast:

“You got the (ETH) swap now, on BitMEX, and it’s just wonderful to trade. But the thing is it’s awesome too because you don’t really need much leverage at all for it because the moves are just so crazy, all you need is 2x and you’re good.”

But I would be remiss not to mention the so-called “King of Crypto,” which is Bitcoin of course, as at the time of writing has found itself back over $6,300 and is up a respectable 1.15% on the day. The eyes of a majority of crypto analysts are still centered on the technical and fundamental aspects of Bitcoin, as the price action and performance of the “King” often dictates the rest of the market.

“Crypto Prices Will Slowly Recover”

Speaking with MarketWatch, Josh Fraser, the co-founder of blockchain startup Origin (Origin Protocol), not to be confused with the video game company that shares a similar name, noted that in spite of an unwary and volatile market, prices could recover over the next few months. In an email to the financial-focused publication, Fraser wrote:

Prices will slowly recover some of the losses they experienced in [the first of half of] 2018.

Explaining why this is the case, Fraser explained that as development efforts shift towards blockchain technologies, and subsequently, crypto assets, the “key pain points” of usability and pricing will start to subside.

Moreover, those who have written off their involvement or investment into crypto long ago may begin to realize that this nascent space holds real-world value, not just speculation. Closing his email off, the cryptocurrency executive wrote, “this will help stabilize prices and is why building usable systems is critical.”

 

This post credited to Ethereumworld News  Image source: Ethereumworld News